Course Syllabus
Designing Social Inquiry: An Introduction to Causal Inference
Professor Vanessa Baird Office Ketchum 114E; Email Vanessa.Baird@colorado.edu
Please come to my office hours! Tuesdays 2-3:00; Wednesdays 1:30-3:30 (also by appointment)
I often will keep office hours open for other students to listen; if you would like to speak to me privately, please let me know.
There is some but very little math. You will be using a statistics program (R or Stata), but the emphasis is on avoiding the common logical fallacies in interpreting the analysis, not on learning the program itself.
All class periods, quizzes, and midterms are meant to help teach you what you need to know to create a nearly publishable paper. In other words, your paper should contribute to human knowledge.
Students have presented their work from this class at national conferences (those who did got into fancy law schools as a result: Berkeley and Michigan!)
A student from fall 2021 and I worked on revising her paper and we will submit our article for publication in a few weeks. We are presenting it on Friday, Aug. 26th.
Some choices for how to do the class project
#1 choice: You can work in a group or individually
# 2 choice: There are several “tracks” to take
B track: You can choose a relatively easy “canned” paper, where I guide you on the variables you choose. This is an option for those who just want to pass the class with a B or a C. If you choose this relatively easy way to do the final project, even with the extra credit I sometimes offer, you cannot earn more than a B. I will calculate your grade just like the other students and if you earn at least an 82 average, you earn a B. If you earn lower than that, then you receive that grade.
Why choose B track? You are overloaded with other time commitments. I created this track because too many students have had to drop the class because doing the final project the way I intend was too overwhelming for some.
A+ track: You work with me in a group; no individual option. We will meet quasi-weekly, and we have the option of using larger data sets with more variables to navigate. There will be assignments due during those meetings (as any other group should do). To stay in good standing with this group, you must hold up your part. This option is very work intensive.
Why choose A+ track? This is your chance to see how scholarly co-authorships work. The goal is to create a publishable paper that we can present at a national conference, with me as your co-author if you choose.
A track: This is the most common track. You create and critique your own hypotheses.
All in all, there are five options:
- A track with group
- A track individual
- B track with group
- B track individual
- A+ track group
# 3 option: You can choose Stata or R
I recommend Stata because it is less irritating and super easy to learn. I will provide tons of informational videos on both languages as we will not spend much time teaching how to program. If you choose Stata, then $36 for the semester rental is the cost (there are free options). No text, or other costs.
Grade breakdown
|
Paper |
|
Total paper 50% |
|
Two paper milestones |
10 x2 |
|
|
Final paper |
25 |
|
|
Final paper presentation (Final Exam session) |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exams / quizzes (all open note) |
|
Total exams / quizzes 35 |
|
Two midterms |
10x2 |
|
|
Three quizzes |
5x3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Participation |
|
Total participation 15 |
|
In-class assignments, pop quizzes, etc |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extra credit available |
|
Total extra credit 13 |
|
Turning in milestones on time |
2 each, 4 max |
|
|
Tutoring (or being tutored) |
1 point per part, 5 max |
|
|
Peer reviews of final rough drafts |
1-2 each based on quality 2 peer reviews, 4 max |
Major due dates
Note that the course has a cycle where there are more exams and midterms, and other times when there are milestones due, so that it is not overwhelming all at once. Most overwhelming are milestone due dates and the end of the semester when the main project is due.
Quizzes and midterms run from Thursday to Friday and are taken through Canvas, open note, open book, open internet.
|
Friday, September 2 |
Quiz 1 |
|
|
Friday, September 23 |
|
Milestone 1 rough draft, optional |
|
Friday, September 30 |
|
Milestone 1 due |
|
Friday, October 14 |
Quiz 2 |
|
|
Friday, October 21 |
Midterm 1 |
|
|
Friday, October 28 |
|
Milestone 2 rough draft, optional |
|
Friday, November 4 |
|
Milestone 2 due |
|
Friday, November 18 |
Midterm 2 |
|
|
Friday, December 2 |
Quiz 3 |
|
|
Tuesday, December 6 |
|
Rough draft, optional |
Course Outline
|
Date |
Subject |
Exams, quizzes, due dates |
|
Part 1: Introduction to the logic of various kinds of inferences |
||
|
Tuesday, August 23 |
Overview of class |
|
|
Thursday, August 25 |
The logic of inference |
|
|
Tuesday, August 30 |
Exogeneity |
|
|
Thursday, September 1 |
Introducing the data and codebooks Review for quiz |
Quiz 1 Any hour between 2pm Thursday to noon on Friday |
|
Friday, September 2 |
|
|
|
Part 2: Introduction to simple (linear) causality |
||
|
Tuesday, September 6 |
Why we care about “y”: using ethics responsibly in social science Topic 2: How to read an abstract, table |
Assignment Bring to class: paragraph: why does your Y matter? |
|
Thursday, September 8 |
Three kinds of literature reviews |
Assignment: Make a causal argument, using an independent variable in your data and bring it to class. Bonus if you use a scholarly article to bolster your argument. |
|
Tuesday, September 13 |
How to write a literature review efficiently |
Assignment: Bring a copy of three abstracts of papers related to the three kinds of literature reviews. |
|
Thursday, September 15 |
Concepts and units: Venn diagrams, DAGs, crosstabs, and scatterplots |
For the next few class periods, readings and assignments are light. |
|
Tuesday, September 20 |
Descriptive inference: From variation to co-variation and correlation: Venn diagrams, DAGs, crosstabs, and scatterplots |
In-class: Lecture and practice |
|
Thursday, September 22 |
Bivariate correlation |
In class: lecture and practice |
|
Friday, September 23 |
|
Milestone 1 rough draft optional due on Canvas at 5pm |
|
Part 3: Diagnosing
1) additive independence, 2) confounding, 3) mediating, and 4) moderating relationships
Using crosstabs and scatterplots
Purpose: to understand controls conceptually and prepare for Part 5
|
||
|
Tuesday, September 27 |
Confounding versus independent effects |
|
|
Thursday, September 29 |
Mediating versus confounding Suppression (Simpson’s paradox) |
|
|
Friday, September 30 |
|
Milestone 1 due due on Canvas at 5pm 2 points extra if on time |
|
Tuesday, October 4 |
Moderators: understanding conditional relationships |
|
|
Date |
Subject |
Exams, quizzes, due dates |
|
Part 4: Measurement and missing data |
||
|
Thursday, October 6 |
Conceptualization and validity |
|
|
Tuesday, October 11 |
Reliability |
|
|
Thursday, October 13 |
Review for quiz |
Quiz 2 Any hour between 2pm Thursday to noon on Friday |
|
Friday, October 14 |
|
|
|
Tuesday, October 18 |
Scaling: mean indexes and missing data |
|
|
Thursday, October 20 |
Go over quiz, review for midterm |
Midterm 1 Any two hours between 2pm Thursday to noon on Friday |
|
Friday, October 21 |
|
|
|
Part 5: Diagnosing
1) additive independent effects, 2) confounding, 3) mediating, and 4) moderating relationships
Using multiple regression
|
||
|
Tuesday, October 25 |
Regression with three variables, introduction to overlapping variation |
|
|
Thursday, October 27 |
Regression: confounding versus additive |
|
|
Friday, October 28 |
|
Milestone 2 rough draft optional due on Canvas at 5pm |
|
Tuesday, November 1 |
Regression: mediating relationships, suppression |
|
|
Thursday, November 3 |
Go over quiz 3: using regression to correct measurement error and missing data |
|
|
Friday, November 4 |
|
Milestone 2 due due on Canvas at 5pm 2 points extra if on time |
|
Tuesday, November 8 |
Regression: interactions |
|
|
Thursday, November 10 |
Review for midterm: Three variable regression, diagnosing the relationship |
|
|
Friday, November 11 |
|
|
|
Tuesday, November 15 |
Three variable regression, diagnosing the relationship |
|
|
Thursday, November 17 |
Multiple variable regression |
Midterm 2 Any two hours between 2pm Thursday to noon on Friday |
|
Friday, November 18 |
|
|
|
Happy Thanksgiving! |
||
|
Date |
Subject |
Exams, quizzes, due dates |
|
Tuesday, November 29 |
Multiple variable regression, diagnosing the relationships |
|
|
Thursday, December 1 |
Review for quiz |
Quiz 3 Any hour between 2pm Thursday to noon on Friday |
|
Friday, December 2 |
|
|
|
Tuesday, December 6 |
Optional presentation: workshopping puzzles |
Rough draft optional due on Canvas at 5pm |
|
Thursday, December 8 |
Optional presentation: workshopping puzzles |
|
|
Friday, December 9 |
|
|
|
Final exam period, TBA
CU Administration will announce day and time around November |
Presentations |
|
Paper due: 24 hours after final presentation (TBA)